Stabilisation with Prospects for an Emerging Uptrend through 2030 After the Sharp Declines Since 2017
Updated 04042026
MyTapu Associates Macro-Economic Forecasts for Turkliye
... anticipated as early as 2020-2024, the current gradual improvement in Turkiye's economic balances that will result increasingly in greater exchange rate stability for the Turkish Lira and result in renewed mortgage lending and a reversal into an upward trend for Turkish property prices in selected locations.
These forecasts began to come true in late 2025 and are expected to continue into 2030.
Changing Trends: Macro-Economic Impact
Recent geo-political conflict has pushed up oil and gas prices, and historically, that has not been so good for Turkiye's foreign currency balances and payments… but times are changing. Turkish gas production is now coming through the pipelines from gas reserves in the Black Sea, and this will significantly reduce Turkish import payments. In addition, petroleum exports from northern Iraq through Syria and the Turkish pipelines to the Mediterranean have restarted once again, meaning more oil at advantaged prices and discounts, pipeline revenues, and cross border tanker-truck trade, which had a very positive impact in the past. Changing petroleum product supply lines are just one good reason why the Turkish Lira will be stronger in the future…
There is also good reason to consider the monetary/currency and macro outlook in Turkiye is shifting back away from the woeful struggles ensuing after 2017... meaning prospects improving for a more resilient Turkish Lira, attract investment into deep discounted valuations, not only in real estate, but through-out the economy. For example, valuations on the Istanbul are less than 1/4 of the levels elsewhere.. Whilst not expecting a return to the buying frenzy of 2012-2017, the policy induced changes in expectations surrounding forward currency depreciation rates, will result in asset revaluations... far in advance of being reflected in credit ratings and country risk benchmarks. We are noting a sustained up tick in institutional investor enquiries and interest by finance providers.... The capital flow is expected to set the stage for a gradual resumption of competitive returns on capital....
Notably, Turkish policy makers are showing serious intent with the recent sale of a sizeable portion of Turkiye's gold reserves recently; with Dollar swaps for supporting the Lira… good for policy credence… and good market timing (!)…:) ... adding additional flexibility to their hand….
Turkiye Crashes Gold Prices & Strengthens Lira
The Result ?
Investment merit for real estate in Turkiye is improving, and returns will be better than 2017- 2021 (negative) and 2021-2024 (lagging other developed economies). ....
Counter-Cyclical...
It should come as no surprise that Turkiye's real estate market moves differently than most western countries, because the economy is so different. For example. while real estate prices crashed in most places in 2007-2008, prices in Turkiye were just beginning an upward ascent that peaked in 2017. And while real estate prices trended higher in most countries due to pandemic stimulus in 2022-2025, prices in Turkiye lagged, and were lower to flat, with only marginal increases in selected locations.
Planning an Investment
...to capitalize on this improved outlook, benefits from inights on how seasonal patterns impact short term price trends in Turkiye.
Seasonal Factors Effect Price Negotiation:
The worst time to close and complete a purchase is the period May- August...
The best times to close and complete a purchase are:
- November 15 - December 15: which means the negotiation should begin October 1-15, and the property search should begin Aug 30- Sep 15...
- March 15-30: which means the negotiation should begin no later than Feb 1-15, and the property search should begin no later than Jan 1 -15.
For these reasons, planning, and other insights, please reach out to Email info@mytapu.com (mailto:info@mytapu.com) :
Investors:
How to COMBINE a real estate investment benefiting from…
Istanbul’s Grandeur
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Turkiye’s Sea-Side Life Style
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Buyers Rejoice at the Biggest News for Property Investors in Turkiye for Ten Years…
The Most Valuable Information Investors will Ever Receive
May 1 2026
These regulatory changes will have the greatest impact since the 2017 price peak, the 2007 introduction of mortgages, and the 2003 approval for foreign investors.
What were the tricks, tactics and transactional practices that previously made investing so difficult?
New Regulations Minimize Profiteering & Risks
- Transparent Secure Payment Procedures
- Valuations & Property Sale Price Data
- Permit-Less Properties Banned
MyTapu Associates: Real Estate Investment Advisers, Serving Foreign Investors in Turkey since 1989
There are no real estate agents, layers, bankers, mortgage brokers, nor appraisal eksperlar in Turkiye with professional licenses and qualifications for providing investment advice... these are NOT investment advisors..
Local Insights add to our Advisors' Expertise, of the Highest Calibre....
- Multiple University Four-Year Degrees
- Higher Degrees (PhD)
- Professional Licenses (12+)
- 20+Yrs Work within Institutional Standards
- 30+ Years of Professional Practice and Local Knowledge in Turkiye
- Multi-Country Cadastral Knowledge
- Multi Jurisdictional Legal Experience
- Assigned by World Bank & OECD to Turkish Gov't Technical Assistance team to establish in Turkiye the SPK's 1) Appraisal Framework Methodology, 2) Eksper Appraisal Training & Licensing 3),Eksper Professional Trade Association, 4) Bank SME Loan Training Programs, 5) Bank Mortgage Lending Products & Policies, 6) Extensive Deal Flow Origination for Institutional Clients,7) Investment Banking Formation, Management and Operations, 8) Innovator of Propietary Econometric Techniques, Tools, and Specialist Real Estate Research...., etc.
