In 2019, two key events recently have provided hope for economic relief and an upward turn to property prices in Istanbul, and Turkey:

1) President Trump (US) signalled the cancellation of sanctions on Turkey;

2) President Erdogan (Turkey) dismissed the head of the Turkish Central Bank, suggesting the new head will move interest rates in Turkey lower.

Are these events sufficient to move property prices higher?

The cancellation of sanctions would be positive for the economy, but the direct impact on property prices is likely to be less direct. The unfolding sanctions story is likely to be less clear, and less significant for property prices.

Lower interest rates would have a positive impact on property prices. With interest rates at 24%, mortgage lending has diminished, and any decline in interest rates will directly increase the amount of mortgage lending, and thus buying. As interest rates are currently at 24%, there is a long way to fall while this process unfolds, and property prices may begin to move higher in anticipation of further cuts.

Are these two events the solutions to projecting Turkish property prices on a sustainable uptrend?Neither of these two events provide the impetus to trigger a sustainable upward trend in Turkish property prices. Instead, there are two other factors that are key to triggering the structural changes required. One of these factors is very slowly adjusting in the right direction. The other factor is already underway, with policy measures introduced earlier this year, but the market has not recognised this, and is not yet anticipating higher prices as a result.

Our internal forecast is that prices may not begin an upward move until Turkiye's currency devaluation rate subsides, and the current account deficit begins to narrow on a structural trend, likely beginning sometime in 2025, or after.  Stability would once again trigger greater interest among property investors in Turkey, leading to higher prices. However the underlying structural changes will continue to be essential for supporting a sustainable long-term uptrend in property prices. For more information about what these two key factors are, and tracking their changes, and the effect on Turkish property prices, please email Advice@mytapu.com .

Investors wishing to participate in the declining interest rate environment in Turkey, by the purchase of property, may also like to consider alternative investments while they are finalising their property purchase (which may take as long as 90 days). These alternative investments will increase in TL value as interest rates decline, and result in a gain in the value of capital, that is designated thereafter for investment in real estate. These alternative investments include the purchase of Turkish Government Bonds. For additional information, please email Advice@mytapu.com.

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How’s the property market doing? Investors' intuition and instincts are telling them one thing, but the news and statistics are saying something else... For real estate investors experiencing this dilemma, these charts tell why…. 

In Miami, the statistics show foreign home buyers are disappearing. For the year ending July 2018, foreign buyers purchased about $23 billion of South Florida real estate, down 5% from the previous year, at 19% of existing home sales versus 21%, previously. The share of foreign buying in South Florida nearly doubles the US national average of 10%. Canadians and Brazilians bought the most, 52,000 properties, a decrease of 15%; Latin American and Caribbean buyers together amounted to 36%, Canadians 22%, Europeans 19%, and Asians 11%. A strong dollar, higher global interest rates, and declining local currencies have virtually eliminated buying from Mexicans, Argentineans, and Venezuelans. The decline in sales is particularly notable in the million dollar segment.

In Turkey, official statistics of property purchases by foreigners in October showed that Iraqis topped the list with 1,439 units, followed by Iranians with 557, Kuwaitis with 378, Germans with 341, and Russians with 336; whilst the largest segments of foreign buying in the previous cycles from, British, and Swedes increased from virtually non-existent levels by 131 percent, and 137 percent, respectively, directly correlated to the recovery in tourism this summer. For the record, the official prognosis in Turkey, is …’ we may sell 40,000 units to foreigners in 2018, this is a historic record for our country." Such optimism is remarkable, considering the influx of foreign residential ownership for the first five years of the previous boom totalled some 50,000. And those 50,000 were primarily to northern Europeans, sales at significantly higher prices and larger profit margins. Perhaps in the context of ebullient enthusiasm, it’s worth remembering, that similarly optimistic forecasts of the return of Russian buying in 2017, amounted in the end, to a mere total of $ 1 million….

 The current outlook in both Miami and Istanbul has now pivoted sharply, each in different directions.  Developers in Miami are halting new construction, as properties, such as Miami Beach’s Sunset Island II,  are lingering on the market for more than six months. Instead of selling in one month, on a first visit, the buyers are more cautious, visiting three or four times. In Istanbul, developers are now rejoicing at having buyers return, whilst competing to sell un-moved inventory.

Reflecting the US situation in a global context, with Istanbul as an example, is relevant because the US market directly influences global interest rates, and thus global real estate markets. In September, Bank of America signalled the peak of the US housing market, citing declining affordability, greater price reductions, and deteriorating housing sentiment. The effects are impacting real estate markets globally. Three month Libor interest rates, the benchmark for more than $ 30 trillion of global borrowing, mortgages included, is in a sustained uptrend.

The significant insight, is that markets are peaking at the end of the current cycle, without having attained the pricing or profitability of the previous cycle.  This is the reason why residential investors intuition is not corresponding with the news, because investment returns are not matching up to those enjoyed near the peak of the previous cycle, nor to the bullish press-releases of the real estate media. 

Evidently, as is plain to see in the charts above; each new financial bail-out by Central Banks, has a diminishing impact on economic activity and wealth creation.

Special Thanks for Graphics, to Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com…

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At mytapu.com our policy is to ensure our clients are fully informed, so that they may make fully informed decisions- this helps to ensure better outcomes all around. 

Suggested Reading:

Residential Property Investors Tool-Kit for Turkey

Property Finders Service Istanbul and Coastal Turkey,

Citizenship Investment in Turkey 

Due Diligence

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The One Source for Every Turkish Mortgage

Legal Services for Property Matters in Turkey

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